Changing Parking Habits

Matt Richtel discusses, in a recent New York Times article, how local governments in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are using installed sensors on parking meters to keep track of open street parking spaces. By doing so, citizens can use a smart phone app to save time, lessen traffic and reduce stress.

Like one of my previous articles, which highlights how technology is changing the way people dine, Richtel's article highlights how technology is changing the way people park. If these current projects are successful they could be adopted by cities around the world, solidifying a change in behavior and quickening its spread.

The only issue with this app is that it requires the use of a mobile device while driving. Consequently, for safe usage, drivers would need to have a passenger or pull over on the road.

Barriers to Entry?

According to the "5 Forces" of business analysis, all industries have differing degrees of barriers to entry. This means that for certain industries it is easy for new competitors to join the industry and hard for others. This means that depending on certain factors of a certain industry there will be a large number of competitors or a small number.

After watching an interesting new show last week called Shark Tank on ABC it is apparent that America's desire for reality competition forms of entertainment has altered the traditional economic model. On this new show, poor inventors and entrepreneurs are given the once in a life time opportunity to pitch their product or service directly to five wealthy "sharks," who can choose to fight over the chance to invest in what they see. In doing so, these sharks are giving possible competitors in a given industry the chance to bypass the natural barriers to entry.

Taking into consideration the small number of people on the show and the smaller number of people who actually get funded, it is evident that a large impact will not be felt. Nonetheless it is interesting to note that given a strong enough desire even the structure of a large economy like America's can be altered.

Changing Eating Habits

A Fast Company online article highlights the recent technological advancements that have altered the way we are dinning. Except for the robot waiter in China's Dalu Robot Restaurant, which delivers food to tables on pre-programed paths and avoids crashes using built-in motion sensor technology, the article does not contain relatively new technologies but new applications of current ones.

While diners once had to stay close to the restaurant, carrying large pagers around, waiting for their table, they are now free to roam as far as they like thanks to new software that lets restaurant computers send text messages to diners.

In another example, certain Delta Airline lounges now feature iPad devices with apps that let waiting passengers order food from near by venues that will be delivered directly to the gate. When fully integrated into airports, passengers will never have to lug their bags around to crowded airport eateries all while trying to order, pay, eat and return to their gate before missing their flights.

Not only does this article showcase a change in the way people are dinning but it also hints at how technology may be taking away jobs being that waiters are being replaced by robots and mobile ordering systems. See my previous post for more on this.

Military Games

With the breaking news of Osama Bin Laden’s death, military stories have peaked my interest. As you can see from my blog I have already uploaded a brief post on the military’s use of blogging. Another New York Times article has caught my eye being that it is also technology focused, which fits into the theme of my blog. This one is centered on the slow inclusion of virtual military training programs. There is a more specific reason for my interest in this subject: the death of such a prominent figure such as Bin Laden is likely to cause retaliation from his supporters and as a citizen of the country that killed him I am concerned about our preparedness for such an attack. The success of our military is directly dependent on adequate training programs. The implications of a successful program extends beyond the United States. As a country dedicated to world peace, our success will influence stability and peace across the globe.

Virtual military training programs involve the use of video games, alternate reality goggles, hand-held devices, and 3D projections to simulate battle conditions. While similar, it does not include commercial military strategy or simulation games such as the ever-popular Call of Duty franchise, which focuses on theatrical action and entertainment rather than realistic battlefield situations. Andrew Martin’s article in the Sunday edition reminds us that the use of such technology in military training occurred as far back as the mid 1990’s when marines altered the commercial game Doom to provide a more realistic fighting experience. Yet, Martin’s article is being published now because the conversation of virtual training is far from over. The fact that its roots date back to the 1990’s and its relatively small use is exactly the point: The military has been extremely slow in adopting this program – a program that can better prepare our army for the war we are currently fighting as well as future ones.

Martin explains that normal training involves 45 minute in-class powerpoint presentations detailing information on the targeted region. While what they are learning is important, such training styles are inadequate. Instead of boring lecturers that people often sleep through and find hard to absorb information from, a 3D projection or alternate reality goggles can directly immerse recruits into the environment of the battlefield - in the current case, Afghanistan. Even though this simulation does not replicate the actual climate of a region it can fool one's other senses into convincing oneself you are in a dusty desert.

When focusing on the use of hand-held devices such as the iPhone smartphone, Martin points out the benefits of having a mobile device that can sync any mission updates, locate enemies and communicate with comrades. He then points out the cost savings of such a training tool: While an app of the Army’s Blue Book - outlining  duties of an officer - was created in just three days for a small amount of money, the printed version of the same book that is used in normal training costs $750,000 and took 135 days to print. Eric Beidel’s National Defense Magazine article agrees with the improved functionality of smartphones, stating that these small devices will severely cut down on the weight soldiers would have to lug around. In his article detailing the need to focus less on the large equipment and more on the needs of the foot solider, he points out that cargo weight is a serious performance issue, which can cause fatigue in even the strongest soldiers after carrying an average 130 pounds throughout a day of duty. Additionally, Martin highlights the fact that the military needs to adopt teaching methods that fit the needs of the current recruits. Incoming soldiers have grown up with the internet and similar devices. Therefore, the army needs to fit their needs by teaching them with tools that they naturally understand and are used to. The use of such devices would also provide a side-benefit by attracting more recruits to join the army; these devices are consistent with the high tech theme of the army’s advertising campaigns.

The downside to the push for smartphones in training and consequently the battlefield is that, just as a paper map can be damaged by water, so can a smartphone. Moreover, unlike a paper map, smartphones can break when dropped, require charging and most importantly may be hacked into by the enemy. Not only may the enemy learn our training strategies but also our exact mission objectives. Advanced and costly encryption, which aren't necessarily guaranteed would be required as Martin points out.

As I previously mentioned, Martin’s article points out that virtual training has been implemented. The army began acquiring a simulation game, opened sourced and allowing for playback so that training sessions may be reviewed and improved upon (cited from Seth Robinson’s article on Stars and Stripes), by the name VBS 2 in 2001. Lieutenant Fish, currently in Afghanistan, verified the usefulness of such training in his day-to-day missions on the battlefield. Robinson elaborates on the military’s plan to spend $50M over the course of five years on virtual training starting in 2008. Yet, this implementation, as Beidel points out, is slow and is what continues this conversation. The true problem lies in the lack of support, namely in funding. This notion directly supports Martin’s point about the small research and development budget for virtual training hindering its proliferation throughout the military. Even though initiated programs proved successful; such programs were proven to also dramatically reduce post traumatic stress disorder by adequately prepared soldiers before traumatic events occurred (cited from a Sign On Sand Diego news article); and multiple highly seated officers such as the Lieutenant General Michael Vane from the Army’s training command and Directory of Training Readiness and Strategy Frank C. DiGiovanni from the Department of Defense support virtual training as Martin’s article highlights, this has not been enough to hype up the military’s action.

It appears that America is taking steps to improve our defenses and consequently the stability of the world, however, action is slow due to the conservative American military, who is not quick to deviate from its normal training. Hopefully with more successful initiated programs, virtual training will be used throughout all of the military and be fully integrated along side traditional training.

Robots, Jobs & The Future

As a college senior preparing for a business career in the ever technological world, I thoroughly enjoy – on both a personal and academic level – reading the latest edition of Fast Company. The April 2011 issue featured an article on the various capabilities of robots. My interest, however, was grabbed when exploring Fast Company’s website and stumbling upon another robot article containing the sentence, “ABB has made an effort to note it doesn’t see robots like Frida stealing jobs in the future…” This got me thinking about my future career: Will I be managing robots one day? Will robots eventually take my job?

The issue of robots and job security dates back beyond April 2011. Computer scientist and academic, Marshall Brain gave life to the conversation with many written works dedicated to the subject including an essay entitled Robot Nation in 2003. Throughout his essay he expresses the notion that robots will proliferate throughout the workplace and improve, ultimately replacing humans and rendering them unemployed.

Robots are nothing new either. When broadly defined robots can encompass anything from ATM machines that automate monetary transfers to vending machines that provide snacks. Society is use to and has already accepted these robots as part of its normal activity. What is not fully accepted are the robots used in the workplace – some worry about the jobs they may take away from humans who, especially in America, are already facing an unemployment rise.

Brain predicted that by 2030 robots will advance beyond the simple robotic arms used in today’s manufacturing to humanoid robots capable of all normal human functions and possibly more brain power. By 2055 he says over half the job force will be unemployed because of them.

Brain specifies the robot takeover as starting with the “kiosk and self-service systems,” which are easy and repetitive tasks such as carrying out transactions – at a gas station for instance. Agreeing with him are economist David Autor and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fincial Studies in Madrid. As pointed out in a blog article by Amar Toor on Switched, they state that jobs more susceptible for replacement by machines involve “routine tasks.” This makes sense that simple repeatable actions are replaceable by a machine programmed specifically to complete such actions.

By replacing the jobs of the lower and lower-middle class, Toor foresees a resulting focus on education and skilled labor – something which he finds beneficial to society. While no one can dispute the benefits of a more knowledgeable population, capable of making better decisions and more discoveries, I would like to point out that the cost of education has been drastically rising with no sign of slowing down. In addition, many of the country’s schools are still reporting low-test scores. Combined, the high cost of education and the lack of its success thus far suggest that even with focus on education, a skilled labor force is unlikely to result. 

Aaron Saenz from the tech blog Singularity Hub agrees that such job replacement can be beneficial when he notes that by freeing the labor force from mundane tasks, society can then divert more attention to larger more important issues such as solving the energy crisis. But similarly, if the recently unemployed population cannot be further educated then the benefit of having more time on their hands is mute.

An article on SmartPlanet reports that robots are currently being used in hospitals to replace certain tasks required of nurses, and the original Fast Company article I read elaborates on a robot that will follow an office worker around carrying out various tasks such as getting coffee. These examples move the discussion forward by showcasing how robots will not just replace the immobile, routine, factory jobs but also the mobile and more complicated jobs of other lower-end professions such as nurses and secretaries. An article in the New York Times a year ago reported a telepresence robot with sensory perception could allow a doctor, who is hundreds of miles away, to monitor a patient. This example hints at the possibility of doctors being replaced by robots in the future. Therefore, even some of the highest skilled jobs are at risk of the takeover. One might argue that humans will always be necessary to mange companies, however, I foresee it being very easy for robots to calculate the most optimal number of shirts to order for example, or the most efficient schedule for a catering shift. One might also suggest humans will always be needed to maintain these machines we created, yet coming back to Brain’s article it is clear he believes robots will be able to maintain themselves. He says robots will be able to transport, analyze and fix a broken comrade all with “no human intervention or supervision.” It may even be possible to have robots design robots, thus becoming self-sustaining and rendering humans unnecessary. In a world built on efficiency what is unnecessary is discarded.

Is this the actual reality humanity faces? Not likely. Revisiting some points suggests why the dismal future is unlikely. Robots are unlikely to replace the upper management jobs because of the flaws with data analysis. As hinted at previously, robots are basically appendage-bearing computer programs running mathematical equations. Such data analysis is limited to how the equation is set up as well as whether or not all the possible factors are accounted for. Pepsi illustrates this point: in a blind taste test the data proved that more people preferred Pepsi over Coke yet sales results suggested otherwise. This is because the analysis conducted failed to account for the quantity of liquid consumed, in which case Pepsi was preferred only in small quantities. Therefore, robots will need humans being that relying only on robot generated data may not always lead to the best solution to be carried out by the machine. Furthermore, robots cannot make decisions involving ethical dilemmas being that such situations cannot be mathematically translated into an equation. How can a robot know the repercussions on sales of the decision to dump waste at a landfill near a town?

Joanna Glasner’s Wired article also points out criticism of Brain’s argument when she cites a poster on the geek site Slashdot. The poster points out that robots will be held in check against overrunning the job market being that they are costly and if they were indeed over taking everyone’s job then there would be a reduction of spending, a reduction in company revenue and therefore a reduction in the company’s ability to invest in more robots.

Pessimists like Brain fail to realize the benefits of these machines. The online Fast Company article reminds us that robots are able to work 24 hours per day, won’t take sick days, won’t go on maternity leave, won’t be charged with sexual harassment in the workplace, and won’t ever go on strike. The article goes on to discuss how a newly invented robot is specially designed to work along side humans to support their needs and improve their efficiency on an assembly line rather than take over their jobs. It further points out that machines can be used when dealing with heavy objects or harsh chemicals, and thus, are making the workplace safer for humans.

Even though Brain introduces several good points warning of the takeover of human jobs by robots and even though other bloggers along with myself agree with many of his points, the benefits of a robotic addition to the work force are too vital to be ignored – especially when these machines can help to save a person’s life (reference the two medical examples I gave previously).  This is not even the first time that technological advancements have taken away jobs: the industrial revolution’s manufacturing practices left many artisans and craftsmen jobless yet not everyone is jobless today nor is everything manufactured in a city factory. Humans were creative enough to invent these machines, they will be creative to invent a way to co-exist.

As such, I am certain that I will be dealing with robots in my future career and given my adaptability beyond what I was pre-programmed to do along with my ethical compass I am certain that I will be managing robots at some point in the future.

What Were You Thinking Part 2

Included in this post are two photos of new inventions, highlighted in a blog post, that seem unnecessary and impractical:

While one can tell it will conviently allow you to transfer and cut a piece of pizza to a plate, this invention will only work as a one-step solution if there is already a piece missing. One will need to make an initial cut and then slide the "device" over to make the second cut and extract the piece. Aside from this observation, the real problem with this product is that it provides a solution to a non-existent problem. I have not found any articles citing the problems with grabbing a piece of pizza with one's hand.

While the first was unnecessary, this invention seems impractical in that I cannot foresee another use aside from dipping Oreo cookies into a glass of milk. These cookies are not traditionally dipped in anything else and not many other products come close to the size and design of an Oreo - making this tool often unusable. Economically speaking it is not feasible to spend money on a product that is usable in only one situation while providing so little benefit, being that Oreos are not eaten often enough. One would become ill from the ingredients if he or she were to eat Oreos on a scale that would make this product useful.

Military Blogging = Reminder

By no means do I mean to lessen the enormous impact the recently announced death of Osama Bin Laden has on the world, however I believe many people are viewing this as the end of an era. Some may view the terrorist leader's death as closure on a horrific time in the world's history that we are all too eager to put behind us. Yet, terrorist acts and suppression of human rights are still underway across the globe.

The idea of closure is most apparent in mainstream media news coverage where large stories fade too quickly - sometimes only receiving one day of reporting. However, when we follow military blogs we are reminded of the true length of stories - that the War on Terror continues strong. James Dao's New York Times article highlights this point, stating that soldiers are still reporting about the "tribulations" of fighting occurring in a town that has long since been covered by the media.

One must remember in this ever changing and vast world that very few things actually come to an absolute end, and the main stream media should not be looked to for a chronicle of which things have ended.